by Amruth Sundarkumar | Feb 17, 2023 | Credit Ratings, Macroeconomic news
US Treasury yields jumped higher by over 5bp after Fed officials Loretta Mester and James Bullard came out with hawkish statements. In particular, Mester said that she “saw a compelling economic case for a 50bp increase” based on the incoming data. The...
by Amruth Sundarkumar | Feb 16, 2023 | Credit Ratings, Macroeconomic news
US Treasury yields moved slightly higher, continuing the move post the US CPI report. The peak Fed funds rate was lower by 2bp to 5.24% for the July 2023 meeting. With a 25bp hike in March being priced in, markets are expecting another 25bp in May with a 76%...
by Amruth Sundarkumar | Feb 15, 2023 | Credit Ratings, Macroeconomic news
US front-end 2Y and 5Y Treasury yields shot up by 9-10bp after the US CPI report as the curve bear flattened (Term of the Day, explained below) and inverted further. US CPI came at 6.4% for January, above expectations of 6.2% and lower than last month’s 6.5%...
by Amruth Sundarkumar | Feb 14, 2023 | Credit Ratings, Macroeconomic news
US Treasury yields were marginally lower by 2-4bp across the curve. The peak Fed funds rate widened 2bp to 5.20% for the July 2023 meeting. All eyes now focus on the Jan CPI inflation report, out later today, with estimates of a 6.2% print. Markets are currently...
by Amruth Sundarkumar | Feb 13, 2023 | Credit Ratings, Macroeconomic news
US Treasury yields were broadly higher by 3-7bp across the curve. The peak Fed funds rate widened 3bp to 5.18% for the July 2023 meeting. While a 25bp hike at next month’s FOMC meeting is all but certain (91% probability), the likelihood of another 25bp hike at...
by Amruth Sundarkumar | Feb 10, 2023 | Credit Ratings, Macroeconomic news
US Treasuries yields were broadly higher by 5-7bp across the curve. The peak Fed funds rate widened 2bp to 5.15% for the July 2023 meeting. While a 25bp hike at next month’s FOMC meeting is all but certain (91% probability), the likelihood of another 25bp hike...
