Latest Fed Dot Plot 17 Mar (1)

The FOMC in its latest statement kept rates unchanged and maintained its stance on inflation “to achieve inflation moderately above 2% some time so that inflation averages 2% percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.” In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs), the FOMC bettered its expectations for growth, unemployment and inflation for 2021, 2022 and 2023. Besides, the dot plots also saw a change – 7 officials in the March meeting see a rate hike in 2023 vs. 5 last December while 4 officials see a hike possibility next year vs. none in December. With that, the median Fed Funds Rate’s projected path was kept at 0.1% till 2023. Also, the recent inflation pick-up was termed ‘transient’ by Fed chair Jay Powell. “I thought this was one of the best press conferences we’ve seen from Powell… He got up there and kind of rocked it, and said: ‘This is what we’re doing. This is what’s going on. I said patient and I meant it… Wow, mission accomplished” said Jim Caron, head of global macro strategy at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. The US Treasury 2s10s curve has steepened over 4bp since the announcement.

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