US Treasury yields hit an intraday high of 1.61% yesterday before retreating to less than 1.5%. Market participants have attributed this to inflation expectations rising as fiscal and monetary policy has loosened. Here, we take a look at inflation expectations and US 10Y Treasury yields with inflation expectations being measured by the 10Y breakeven inflation rate. Looking at historical moves in US Treasuries over the last 6 years, inflation expectations have been around 1.5% to 2%. During this time period, despite loose policy, 10Y yields have been in the range of 1.5%-3%, hovering largely above 2%. A closer look at the chart also shows that while 10Y yields have risen 40bp MTD and 13bp in the last week, inflation breakevens have fallen 3bp and 9bp respectively.

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