While US and UK markets were shut, the broader European markets fell with DAX down 0.7% and CAC down 0.6%. German inflation shot up to 2.4%, its highest since October 2018 mainly due to a 10% YoY rise in oil and energy prices. OECD raised the growth forecast for the global economy to 5.8% this year and 4.4% next year on vaccine rollouts and the US stimulus. US 10Y Treasury yields were up 3bp to 1.62%. US IG CDS spreads were 0.3bp tighter and HY spreads were 1.4bp tighter. EU main spreads were 0.5bp tighter and crossover spreads tightened 2.9bp. Asian equities had a muted start – Nikkei and Hang Sang were flat while Shanghai was down 0.3%. Meanwhile, Indian markets remained bullish with the Nifty at a record closing high. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads tightened 0.1bp.
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New Bond Issues
- Zhenro Properties $ 3.25NC2.25 green notes IPG 7.8% area
- China State Construction International $ PerpNC5 IPG 3.75% area
- China Hongqiao Group $ 3Y bonds IPG 6.6% area
- Keppel Infrastructure Trust S$ PerpNC10 IPG 4.55% area
Agile Group Holdings raised $150mn via a tap of their 5.5% 2026s at a yield of 5.6%, 35bp inside initial guidance of 5.95% area. The bonds have expected ratings of BB-, and received orders over $1.1bn, 7.3x issue size. Proceeds will be used for offshore debt refinancing. The total amount outstanding is now $450mn.
Datang Group Holdings raised $300mn via a 364-day bond at a yield of 13%, unchanged from initial guidance of 13%. The bonds are unrated and received orders over $600mn, 2x issue size. Funds and institutional investors in Asia were allocated 63% of the notes and private banks 37%. Proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes.
Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay Development raised $200mn via a 3Y bond at a yield of 3.4%, 40bp inside initial guidance of 3.8% area. The bonds have expected ratings of BBB-. Allocations were not available at the time of writing. Proceeds will be used to refinance the group’s existing medium and long-term offshore debt due within one year.
New Bond Pipeline
- TML Holdings hires banks for US$ 5NC2.5 bond
- Bayfront Infrastructure Capital II hires for $ multi-trancher backed by project finance portfolio
- S&P downgrades Serba Dinamik To B- On Reduced Funding Access; Put on Rating Watch Negative on Rising Refinancing Risks
- Moody’s downgrades Languang Development’s CFR to B3; changes outlook to negative
- Sichuan Languang Downgraded To ‘B-‘ S&P On Uncertain Improvement In Weak Liquidity; On CreditWatch Negative
- Moody’s changes Mitsui & Co’s outlook to stable from negative; affirms (P)A3 rating
May 2021: 66% of Dollar Bonds Traded Higher in May 2021 with IG Outperforming
The month of May continued April’s trend with 66% of dollar bonds in our universe delivering a positive price return ex-coupon during the month. Bond investors are on track for an upbeat Q2 after a dismal Q1, especially in February and March when 66% and 82% of dollar bonds delivered negative price returns respectively.
Both Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY) bonds performed well with the former performing relatively better after months of underperformance. 70% of IG dollar bonds ended higher in May, compared to 62% of HY bonds that ended May in the green.
The box and whisker plot below shows the price return of IG dollar bonds in May by rating. Huarong’s bonds due 2022 and beyond once again dominated the losers falling 7-12% in May. In contrast, Huarong’s 2021s inched higher during the month as news emerged of Huarong wiring money to repay its maturing bonds.
Below is a similar box and whisker plot for HY dollar bonds’ price return in May by rating.
Click here to read the full month-end report that includes an overview of issuance volume, largest deals and top gainers and losers, in addition to the box and whisker plots.
Term of the Day
Accrued interest for a bond refers to the interest or coupon that has accrued since the last coupon payment date but not yet paid. When a bond is traded between coupon payment dates, accrued interest is paid by the bond buyer to the bond seller. The final price paid by the buyer is called dirty price and is calculated by adding the accrued interest to the price of the bond (clean price). The reason buyers have to pay accrued interest is because they stand to receive the full coupon on the next payment date, even though they are only entitled to the coupon that has accrued since the date the bond was purchased.
Accrued interest is calculated as per follows:
AI = P x C/F x D/T
P: Par value of the bond
C: Annual coupon stated as a decimal
F: Coupon payment frequency. For a semi-annual payment bond, F = 2
D: Number of days since the last coupon payment
T: Total number of days in the payment period. For a semi-annual payment bond, T = 180
It is possible for accrued interest to be negative, if a bond has an ex-coupon date (similar to ex-dividend date for stocks). If a bond is traded between the ex-coupon date and the next coupon date, accrued interest has to be paid by the bond seller to the bond buyer, resulting in a negative accrued interest. This is because the full coupon will be received by the seller even though they are entitled to the coupon from the previous coupon date till the transaction date only. In such cases, accrued interest is deducted from the clean price to calculate the dirty price of the bond.